Research Group of Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index

I. SMEOI decreased within the expansion range

In September 2023, the Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index (Fig. 1, hereinafter referred to as “SMEOI”) reported 50.1, down 0.3 points over the previous month. The decline this month ended a three-month uptrend since May, but the index still stayed above the boom threshold.

Fig. 1 Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

II. Three out of the eight subindices increased, and the other five decreased, with the cost index falling the most

Three out of the eight subindices increased, and the other five decreased in September (Fig. 2). Specifically, the market index was 51.4, up 0.1 points; the purchasing index stood at 50.5, up 0.2 points; the performance index registered 50.5, up 0.2 points; the expansion index read 48.5, down 0.5 points; the confidence index posted 52.3, down 0.7 points; the financing index recorded 48.5, down 0.8 points; the risk index closed at 48.6, down 0.7 points; and the cost index was 46.2, down 0.9 points.

Among the eight subindices, the market index, purchasing index, and performance index went upward within the expansion range, indicating the expanding growth in market, purchasing, and performance. The confidence index decreased within the expansion range, indicating that the confidence of micro and small enterprises continued to improve, but with a narrowing growth. The expansion index, financing index, risk index, and cost index fell within the contraction range, indicating continued weakening business expansion, declining financing level, and a further rise in risks and costs of micro and small enterprises. As for indicators under the subindices, it is mainly manifested in a decrease of 1.2 points, 0.5 points, 0.8 points, 0.7 points, and 1 point in liability ratio, payment collection cycle, turnover of working capital, financing demand in the next period, and financing difficulty, respectively.

Fig. 2 Subindices of Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

In terms of the trend over the past 12 months, the confidence index stayed above the boom threshold more frequently, which reflected the rising confidence of micro and small enterprises; the purchasing index and market index ran above the boom threshold more frequently than other subindices, indicating that the micro and small enterprise market was in good condition and the purchasing level was steadily improving. The performance index, expansion index, financing index, risk index, and cost index ran below the boom threshold, reflecting the unsatisfactory performance of enterprises, long-term sluggish expansion, unsatisfactory financing environment as a whole, and rising operating risk and business costs.

III. One out of the six regional indices increased, and the other five decreased, with a sharp rise in Northwest China 

One out of the six regional indices increased, and the other five decreased (Fig. 3). Specifically, the North China index reported 50.2, down 0.1 points; the Northeast China index registered 49.2, down 0.3 points; the East China index read 49.9, down 0.3 points; the Central & South China index posted 50.5, up 0.1 points; the Southwest China decreased by 0.1 points to 50; and the Northwest China index rose by 0.9 points to 51.9.

Fig. 3 Regional Development Index 

The North China, Central & South China and Southwest China indices fell within the expansion range this month, indicating that the growth trend continued but with a narrowing trend. The Northwest China index climbed in the expansion range, indicating the continuing improvement of micro and small enterprises in Northwest China as a national leader. The Northeast China index decreased within the contraction range. The East China index fell from above the boom threshold to below the threshold, with the overall rising trend reversed, which was mainly manifested in the rising operational risk and the falling expansion and financing level.

IV. Two out of the seven industry indices increased, one remained unchanged, and four decreased, with the service industry index falling the most

Two out of the seven industry indices increased, one remained unchanged, and four decreased (Fig. 4). Specifically, the index of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries reported 50.1, on par with last month; that of the manufacturing industry posted 50.6, up 0.1point; that of the construction industry stood at 49.4, down 0.2 points; that of the transportation industry registered 49.3, down 0.6 points; that of the wholesale & retail industry went up by 0.1 point to 50.4; that of the accommodation & catering industry decreased by 0.6 points to 50.1, and that of the service industry reported 49.6, down 1.2 points.

Fig. 4 Comparison of Industry Indices

The manufacturing industry and the wholesale & retail industry moved upward with rising growth, which was mainly manifested in improving market performance, continued purchasing expansion, and increased performance. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries, manufacturing industry, wholesale & retail industries, and accommodation & catering industries stayed above the boom threshold. The construction industry and transportation industry went downward within the contraction range. The service industry fell from above the threshold to below, with the overall rising trend reversed, which was mainly reflected in a decline in market performance and overall confidence.

Notes:

All indicators are positive indicators, with a value range of 0-100, and 50 as the critical point representing the general condition. An index above 50 indicates positive conditions of enterprises, while an index below 50 indicates the downward trend of enterprises.

Both the risk index and the cost index are adjusted to positive indicators based on the raw data. The larger the index value, the better the situation.