Research Group of Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index

I. SMEOI increased upward within the expansion range

In August 2023, the Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index (Fig. 1, hereinafter referred to as “SMEOI”) reported 50.4, up 0.2 points over the previous month. It climbed above the threshold in the previous month, continued to increase upward within the expansion range, and has risen for three months since May 2023.

 Fig. 1 Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

II. Four out of eight subindices increased, one remained unchanged and three decreased, with the market index rising the most

Among the eight subindices, four increased, one remained unchanged while the other three decreased (Fig. 2). Specifically, the market index was 51.3, up 0.3 points; the purchasing index stood at 50.3, up 0.2 points; the performance index registered 50.3, up 0.2 points; the expansion index read 49, down 0.1 points; the confidence index posted 53, down 0.3 points; the financing index recorded 49.3, up 0.1 points; the risk index remained the same as last month at 49.3; and the cost index was 47.1, down 0.3 points.

Among the eight subindices, the market index, purchasing index, and performance index further increased above the threshold, indicating that the micro and small enterprise market was performing well, purchasing level was improved, and performance was enhanced. The confidence index decreased but still remained above the threshold, indicating that confidence was steadily strengthened with a smaller growth compared with the previous month. The financing index increased despite running below the threshold, indicating an upward trend in financing. The expansion index and cost index were below the threshold and decreased over the previous month, indicating the shrinking expansion and rising risks and costs of micro and small enterprises. As for indicators under the subindices, it is mainly manifested in an increase of 0.4 points, 0.5 points, 0.3 points, and 0.2 points in bookings, raw material purchasing, profit, and financing demand in the next period, respectively.

Fig. 2 Subindices of Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

In terms of the trend over the past 12 months, the confidence index stayed above the threshold more frequently, which reflected the rising confidence of micro and small enterprises; the purchasing index and market index ran above the threshold more frequently than other subindices, indicating that the micro and small enterprise market was in good condition and the purchasing level was steadily improving. The performance index, expansion index, financing index, risk index, and cost index ran below the boom threshold, reflecting the unsatisfactory performance of enterprises, long-term sluggish expansion, unsatisfactory financing environment as a whole, and rising operating risk and business costs.

III. Half of six regional indices increased, while others decreased, with Northeast China rising the most

Half of the six regional indices increased and the other half decreased (Fig. 3). Specifically, the North China index reported 50.3, down 0.5 points; the Northeast China index registered 49.5, up 0.6 points; the East China index read 50.2, down 0.2 points; the Central & South China index posted 50.6, up 0.5 points; Southwest China recorded 50.1, down 0.4 point; and the Northwest China index rose by 0.2 point to 51.

Fig. 3 Regional Development Index

The North China, East China, Central & South China, Southwest China and Northwest China indices continued to run above the threshold. Among them, the two indices of Central & South China and Northwest China both increased within the expansion range, which was manifested in significantly increased purchasing. Although the Northeast China index ran below the threshold, its increase over last month ranked first among all regions, signifying a strong recovery trend in this region, as shown in the growth of market demand, purchasing level, and performance.

IV. Three out of the seven industry indices increased, two decreased and two remained the same, with the transportation industry rising significantly

Three out of the seven industry indices increased and two indices decreased, while the rest two remained unchanged from the previous month (Fig. 4). Specifically, the index of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industries reported the same as last month at 50.1; that of the manufacturing industry posted 50.5, up 0.4 points; that of the construction industry stood at 49.6, down 0.2 points; that of the transportation industry registered 49.9, up 0.6 points; that of the wholesale & retail industry stood at 50.3, on par with last month; that of the accommodation & catering industry registered 50.7, down 0.7 points, and that of the service industry reported 50.8, up 0.1 points.

Fig. 4 Comparison of Industry Indices

The manufacturing industry and the service industry further increased above the boom threshold, indicating the accelerating development of micro and small enterprises in the two industries. Specifically, the growth of the manufacturing industry was mainly reflected in significantly increasing purchasing, and that of the service industry was mainly manifested in the rapid expansion of market demand. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry and the wholesale & retail industry ran steadily above the threshold. The accommodation & catering industry stayed above the threshold, but decreased significantly over the previous month, indicating a narrowing upward trend, which was manifested in the slowing growth of market demand and purchasing, a narrowing improvement trend of performance and confidence, and the continued decline of financing. The transportation industry approached the threshold from below with a significant increase from last month, which was mainly reflected in the upward trend of market demand and performance.

Notes:

All indicators are positive indicators, with a value range of 0-100, and 50 as the critical point representing the general condition. An index above 50 indicates positive conditions of enterprises, while an index below 50 indicates the downward trend of enterprises.

Both the risk index and the cost index are adjusted to positive indicators based on the raw data. The larger the index value, the better the situation.