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Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index Report of July 2021

2021-08-20

Steady Economic Recovery, Stronger Risk Resilience

Research Group of Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index

The Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index (hereinafter referred to as “SMEOI”) reported 44.4 in July, up by 0.1 point from the previous month (See Fig.1). Of the eight component indices, five indices went up and three remained unchanged (See Fig.2). Specifically, the market index was 40, up 0.2 point; the purchasing index stood at 42.5, up 0.1 point; the performance index registered 44.5, up 0.2 point; the expansion index read 42.6, the same as last month; the confidence index posted 41.6, up 0.2 point; the financing index recorded 52.9, on par with that in the previous month; the risk index gained 0.1 point to 49; and the cost index closed at 63, remaining unchanged compared with last month. SMEOI has improved steadily since July 2020.

Fig. 1 Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

Fig. 2 Component Indices of Economic Daily – PSBC SMEOI

In the past 12 months, SMEOI went up steadily as a whole. Specifically, the market index and the performance index continued to recover, the confidence index, the purchasing index, the expansion index and the risk index fluctuated at a certain level, and the financing index and the cost index remained above the prosperity threshold--altogether indicated an ongoing improvement in financing environment and a continuous decrease in comprehensive costs for micro and small-sized enterprises (MSEs).

Table 1 Changes of SMEOI and Component Indices in the Past 12 Months

Index name

SMEOI

Market index

Purchasing index

Performance index

Expansion index

Confidence index

Financing index

Risk index

Cost index

Aug-20

43.7

39.2

42.0

43.6

42.7

41.2

51.8

48.6

62.6

Sep-20

43.9

39.3

42.2

44.0

43.0

41.4

52.2

48.5

62.7

Oct-20

43.9

39.3

42.4

44.0

42.9

41.6

52.0

48.4

62.4

Nov-20

44.0

39.5

42.3

44.2

42.7

41.3

52.3

48.5

62.6

Dec-20

44.1

39.5

42.1

44.2

42.8

41.1

52.8

48.8

62.5

Jan-21

44.1

39.6

42.2

44.4

42.6

41.0

52.8

48.8

62.6

Feb-21

44.1

39.5

42.1

44.3

42.6

41.4

52.8

48.9

63.2

Mar-21

44.3

39.8

42.4

44.5

42.7

41.4

52.9

48.9

62.9

Apr-21

44.3

39.7

42.4

44.6

42.7

41.4

52.9

48.8

62.9

May-21

44.3

39.5

42.2

44.5

42.8

41.1

53.2

49.2

63.2

Jun-21

44.3

39.8

42.4

44.3

42.6

41.4

52.9

48.9

63.0

Jul-21

44.4

40.0

42.5

44.5

42.6

41.6

52.9

49.0

63.0 

Six of the seven industry indices went up and the remaining one stayed unchanged.

As to SMEOI, six of the seven industry indices went up and the remaining one stayed unchanged. The indices of all industries other than transportation increased somewhat (See Fig.3).

To be specific, the index of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry reported 43.7, up 0.3 point; that of the manufacturing industry was 45.3, up 0.1 point; that of the construction industry stood at 40.8, up 0.1 point; that of the transportation industry registered 43.1, the same as last month; that of the wholesale & retail industry reached 45.7, up 0.2 point; that of the accommodation & catering industry was 40.4, up 0.3 point; and that of the service industry read 41.4, up 0.1 point.

Fig. 3 Comparison of Industry Indices

Below is a look at changes in the breakdown of each industry index. As to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry, all component indices other than the financing index (that remained unchanged) went up compared with last month. Specifically, the confidence index gained 0.5 point, the sharpest increase of all component indices. The index of the manufacturing industry recorded a rise in such component indices as market index, purchasing index, performance index, confidence index and risk index. Specifically, the market index and the risk index grew significantly by 0.2 point. The index of the construction industry secured the growth in such component indices as purchasing index, performance index, expansion index and confidence index. Specifically, the performance index gained the sharpest increase by 0.4 point. The index of the transportation industry saw a rise in such component indices as performance index and expansion index. Specifically, the performance index gained a greater increase by 0.2 point. Regarding the index of the wholesale & retail industry, such component indices as the market index, purchasing index, confidence index and risk index all went up to varying extents. Specifically, the purchasing index gained the sharpest increase by 0.4 point. With respect to the index of the accommodation & catering industry, all component indices other than the risk index and the cost index (that remained unchanged) rose compared with last month. Specifically, the market index gained 0.5 point, the sharpest increase of all component indices. The index of the service industry secured the growth in such component indices as purchasing index, performance index, expansion index and confidence index. Specifically, the performance index and the confidence index gained the sharpest increase by 0.2 point.

Table 2 Changes to Each Industry Index by Component Indices


SMEOI

Market index

Purchasing index

Performance index

Expansion index

Confidence index

Financing index

Risk index

Cost index

SMEOI

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.1

Manufacturing industry

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

Construction industry

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.3

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

Transportation industry

0.0

0.0

-0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

Wholesale & retail industry

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

Accommodation & catering industry

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

Service industry

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1 

Five out of the six regional indices went up and one went down.

Of the six regional indices, five went up and one went down. The indices of all regions other than Northeast China increased somewhat (See Fig.4).

The North China index reported 42.2, up 0.3 point. Specifically, the market index was 37.2, up 0.5 point; the purchasing index stood at 39.6, up 0.5 point; the performance index registered 42, up 0.4 point; the expansion index read 38, up 0.1 point; the confidence index posted 38.4, up 0.4 point; the financing index recorded 54.2, on par with that in the previous month; the risk index gained 0.2 point to 47.2; and the cost index closed at 68.2, down 0.2 point.

Fig. 4 Regional Development Index



The Northeast China index reported 41, down 0.1 point. Specifically, the market index was 34.9, down 0.1 point; the purchasing index stood at 37.6, down 0.2 point; the performance index registered 41.5, down 0.2 point; the expansion index fell 0.1 point to 38.7; the confidence index posted 42.5, on par with that in the previous month; the financing index recorded 49.9, the same as last month; the risk index read 53.7, remaining unchanged compared with last month; and the cost index closed at 69.3 after a rise of 0.2 point.

The East China index reported 45.5, up 0.1 point. Specifically, the market index was 43.9, up 0.2 point; the purchasing index stood at 45.4, up 0.2 point; the performance index registered 45.9, up 0.2 point; the expansion index gained 0.1 point to 44.4; the confidence index posted 41.9, on par with that in the previous month; the financing index recorded 49.5, the same as last month; the risk index read 48.4, up 0.1 point; and the cost index closed at 60.9 after a rise of 0.1 point.

The Central & Southern China index reported 46.6, up 0.3 point. Specifically, the market index was 44.4, up 0.4 point; the purchasing index stood at 45.9, up 0.4 point; the performance index registered 44.6, up 0.2 point; the expansion index stood at 44.6, the same as last month; the confidence index posted 41.9, on par with that in the previous month; the financing index recorded 55.2, up 0.3 point; the risk index read 47.4, up 0.1 point; and the cost index closed at 64.7 after a rise of 0.1 point.

The Southwest China index reported 43.6, up 0.1 point. Specifically, the market index was 41.5, the same as last month; the purchasing index stood at 44.4, up 0.4 point; the performance index registered 44.7, up 0.3 point; the expansion index stood at 43.7, up 0.1 point; the confidence index posted 37.8, on par with that in the previous month; the financing index recorded 48.4, up 0.1 point; the risk index read 49, up 0.1 point; and the cost index closed at 60.2 after a drop of 0.2 point.

The Northwest China index reported 41.6, up 0.2 point. Specifically, the market index was 37.4, up 0.3 point; the purchasing index stood at 37.6, the same as last month; the performance index registered 44.5, up 0.5 point; the expansion index stood at 39.5, down 0.2 point; the confidence index posted 33.4, up 0.2 point; the financing index recorded 50, on par with that in the previous month; the risk index read 48.2, up 0.1 point; and the cost index closed at 64.9 after a drop of 0.1 point.

Table 3 Changes to Each Regional Index by Component Indices


SMEOI

Market index

Purchasing index

Performance index

Expansion index

Confidence index

Financing index

Risk index

Cost index

SMEOI

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

North China

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.4

0.0

0.2

-0.2

Northeast China

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

East China

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

Central & Southern China

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.1

Southwest China

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

-0.2

Northwest China

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.5

-0.2

0.2

0.0

0.1

-0.1 

The market index and the confidence index went up.

In July, the market index reflecting the market conditions of MSEs gained 0.2 point to 40. By industry, the index of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry was 39.9, up 0.4 point; that of the manufacturing industry reported 39.1, up 0.2 point; that of the construction industry read 37.2, the same as last month; that of the transportation industry registered 40.8, remaining unchanged compared with last month; that of the wholesale & retail industry stood at 42.9, up 0.3 point; that in the accommodation & catering industry posted 39.4, up 0.5 point; and that of the service industry was 36.8, on par with that in the previous month.

According to the survey results, MSEs in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry witnessed an increase of 0.3 point, 0.3 point and 0.5 point in production, order volume and income from principal business. MSEs in the manufacturing industry witnessed an increase of 0.1 point, 0.2 point and 0.3 point in production, order volume (OEM volume) and income from principal business (proceeds of product sales). MSEs in the construction industry witnessed their project volume, amount of newly signed contracts and income from project settlement all remained unchanged from previous month. MSEs in the transportation industry witnessed their traffic volume (passenger/freight), business order volume and income from principal business all remained unchanged from previous month. MSEs in the wholesale & retail industry witnessed an increase of 0.3 point and 0.3 point in sales order volume and proceeds of sales. MSEs in the accommodation & catering industry witnessed an increase of 0.6 point and 0.4 point in business volume and income from principal business (turnover). MSEs in the service industry witnessed an increase of 0.1 point in business volume, a drop of 0.2 point in business order volume and a rise of 0.2 point in income from principal business (turnover).

In July, the risk index reflecting the operational risk of MSEs gained 0.1 point to 49. By industry, the risk index of MSEs in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry was 46.6, up 0.4 point; that in the manufacturing industry was 50.9, up 0.2 point; that in the construction industry was 45.6, the same as last month; that in the transportation industry was 44.2, on part with that in the previous month; that in the wholesale & retail industry was 51.8, up 0.1 point; that in the accommodation & catering industry was 42.9, remaining unchanged compared with last month; and that in the service industry was 41.1, the same as last month.

According to survey results, the working capital turnover index of all industries other than the accommodation & catering industry (that remained unchanged) went up over last month. Specifically, that of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry secured the sharpest increase by 0.5 point.

In July, the purchasing index reflecting the purchasing conditions of MSEs gained 0.1 point to 42.5. To be specific, the purchasing index of MSEs in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry was 41.4, up 0.1 point; that in the manufacturing industry was 39.8, up 0.1 point; that in the construction industry was 38.5, up 0.1 point; that in the transportation industry was 37.2, down 0.2 point; that in the wholesale & retail industry was 49.3, up 0.4 point; that in the accommodation & catering industry was 39.4, up 0.1 point; and that in the service industry was 41.4, up 0.1 point.

Seen from the survey results, MSEs in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry witnessed an increase of 0.1 point in raw material purchase volume and raw material inventory, respectively. MSEs in the manufacturing industry witnessed an increase of 0.2 point in raw material purchase volume and a rise of 0.1 point raw material inventory. MSEs in the construction industry witnessed an increase of 0.1 point in raw material purchase volume and raw material inventory, respectively. MSEs in the transportation industry witnessed a drop of 0.2 point in raw material purchase volume and a fall of 0.1 point raw material inventory. MSEs in the wholesale & retail industry witnessed an increase of 0.4 point in amount of purchase. MSEs in the accommodation & catering industry witnessed an increase of 0.1 point in raw material purchase volume and raw material inventory, respectively. MSEs in the service industry witnessed an increase of 0.2 point in raw material purchase volume and no change in raw material inventory compared with last month.

In July, the confidence index of MSEs reported 41.6, up 0.2 point. By industry, the confidence index of MSEs in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery industry was 42.6, up 0.5 point; that in the manufacturing industry was 44.4, up 0.1 point; that in the construction industry was 35.9, up 0.3 point; that in the transportation industry was 40.5, down 0.2 point; that in the wholesale & retail industry was 42.9, up 0.3 point; that in the accommodation & catering industry was 33.6, up 0.1 point; and that in the service industry was 34.4, up 0.2 point.

Fig. 5 Market Index and Confidence Index by Industry