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October 2015 SMEOI Report by Economic Daily and PSBC

Date: 2016-05-13

In October 2015, “Economic Daily-PSBC Small and Micro-sized Enterprise Operating Index (SMEOI)” (See Fig. 1) edged down 0.1 point to 46.6, indicating the operation of small and micro-sized enterprises (SMEs) was worrisome.

Fig. 1 Economic Daily-PSBC SMEOI

All the sub-indicators and sub-indices (See Fig. 2) together showed a momentum of for “three ups and five downs”. Among them, the market index was 43.8, down 0.2 point from the previous month; the purchasing index 45.9, down 0.1 point; the performance index 46.0, up 0.1 point; the expansion index 46.0, down 0.1 point; the confidence index 48.1, down 0.2 point; the financing index 50.5, up 0.1 point; the risk index 51.2, up 0.2 point; and the cost index 61.8, down 0.1 point.

Fig. 2 Sub-indices of SMEs

The indices of six regions (See Fig. 3) together presented a trend of “one up, two flat and three downs”. SMEOI of North China stood at 45.7, down 0.7 point; Northeast China at 46.9, remaining unchanged from the previous month; East China at 45.9, down 0.2 point; South Central China at 47.9, up 0.1 point; Southwest China at 45.5, remaining unchanged from the previous month; and Northwest China at 44.6, down 1.7 points.

Fig. 3 Regional Development Index

I. SMEOI by Industry

In October, SMEOI of seven industries showed a momentum of “two ups, two flat and three downs”.

Specifically, SMEOI of the wholesale and retail industry and the accommodation & catering industry climbed slightly; that of the farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery and the service industry embraced no change from the previous month; and that of the manufacturing industry, the construction industry and the transportation industry presented varying degrees of decline. (See Fig. 4)

Fig. 4 Index Comparison of Industries

In October, SMEOI of the farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery stood at 45.5, remaining unchanged from previous month. Among it, the market index was 42.4, up 0.1 point; the purchasing index 45.5, down 0.2 point; and the performance index 43.0, up 0.3 point. Seen from the survey results, SMEs in this industry witnessed an increase of 1.3 points in production and a decrease of 1.3 points in raw materials inventory, with the profit rising by 1.1 points.

SMEOI of the manufacturing industry reported 45.2, down 0.1 point from the previous month. Among it, the market index was 40.4, down 0.5 point; the purchasing index 41.2, down 0.4 point; and the performance index 45.4, up 0.2 point. Seen from the survey results, SMEs in this industry witnessed a decrease of 0.8 point, 0.6 point, 0.5 point and 0.5 point in production, order volume, purchasing quantity of raw materials and raw materials inventory, respectively; however, the gross profit rate moved upward by 1.4 points.

SMEOI of the construction industry registered 45.8, down 0.1 point from the previous month. Among it, the market index, the purchasing index and the performance index fell by 0.2 point, 0.2 point and 0.3 point, to 43.8, 41.7 and 47.1, respectively. According to the survey results, SMEs in this industry saw a drop of 0.5 point in the value of new engineering contracts, 0.6 point in income from project settlement and 0.4 point in raw materials inventory, resulting in a profit reduction of 0.6 point.

SMEOI of the transportation industry was recorded at 46.8, down 0.3 point slightly. Among it, the market index, the purchasing index and the performance index each fell by 0.3 point, to 45.1, 44.5 and 44.8 respectively. Survey results revealed that SMEs in this industry incurred a drop of 0.3 point, 0.6 point and 0.4 point in volume of business reservations, income from principal business and raw materials inventory, dragging down both the profit rate and gross profit rate by 0.4 point.

SMEOI of the wholesale and retail industry reported 48.8, up 0.1 point slightly. Among it, the purchasing index and the performance index went up by 0.4 point and 0.2 point, to 54.0 and 46.8, respectively; and the market index was 47.1, down 0.2 point. Specifically, sales order volume dropped by 0.9 point and purchasing quantity grew by 0.5 point, with the profit increasing by 1.5 points.

SMEOI of the accommodation & catering industry stood at 48.4, increasing by 0.3 point. Among it, the market index, the purchasing index and the performance index witnessed an increase of 0.3 point, 0.6 point and 0.2 point, to 49.1, 48.1 and 47.8, respectively. Specifically, business volume and volume of business reservations of SMEs rose by 0.6 point and 1.2 points, respectively, and raw materials inventory climbed by 0.7 point, driving up the gross profit rate by 0.3 point.

SMEOI of the service industry posted 46.7, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Among it, the market index and the purchasing index fell by 0.1 point and 0.2 point, to 45.0 and 44.7, respectively; and the performance index was 45.9, up 0.3 point. Specifically, volume of business reservations dropped by 0.6 point; raw materials inventory decreased by 0.4 point; profit increased by 2.5 points; and gross profit rate declined by 1.6 points.

II. SMEOI by Region

In October, the operating index of six regions showed a momentum of “one up, two flat and three downs”.

SMEOI of South Central China reported 47.9, representing a slight rise of 0.1 point from the previous month. Among it, the market index, the purchasing index and the performance index were 46.3, 47.8 and 47.1, increasing by 0.9 point, 1.0 point and 0.4 point, respectively.

SMEOI of Northeast China and Southwest China stood at 46.9 and 45.5, maintaining the same level as that of previous month. Among them, Northeast China saw an increase of 0.5 point and 1.5 points in the market index and the purchasing index to 45.1 and 47.7, respectively, and a decrease of 0.6 point and 1.8 points in the confidence index and the financing index, to 50.4 and 47.0, respectively; Southwest China achieved an increase of 2.0 points and 1.9 points in the market index and the expansion index, to 43.5 and 44.5, respectively, but a decrease of 2.5 points in the financing index, to 53.0.

SMEOI of North China, East China and Northwest China encountered a setback, decreasing by 0.7 point, 0.2 point and 1.7 points, respectively. North China witnessed a decline of all sub-indices other than the financing index; Northwest China suffered a falling trend in all sub-indices except the risk index; East China suffered a drop of 1.2 points and 1.3 points in the performance index and the financing index, respectively.

III. SME Financing and Risk

In October, the financing index reflecting the financing demand of SMEs (See Fig. 5) reported 50.5, up 0.1 point slightly.

The financing index of SMEs in the construction industry stood at 49.9, up 0.8 point; that in the wholesale and retail industry at 50.7, up 0.3 point; that in the accommodation & catering industry at 46.3, up 0.7 point; and that in the service industry at 51.2, up 0.2 point.

In October, the risk index of SMEs (See Fig. 5) registered 51.2, up 0.2 point. The risk index of SMEs in the farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery, the manufacturing industry and the wholesale and retail industry hit 52.4, 51.2 and 51.3, growing by 0.3 point, 0.5 point and 0.2 point, respectively. The survey data revealed that SMEs in the farming, forestry, husbandry and fishery and the manufacturing industry saw an improved turnover of working capital and a shortened payback period was shortened over the previous month.

Fig. 5 Financing Index and Risk Index of Industries

IV. Business Expectation of SMEs

In October, both the expansion index and the confidence index reflecting the business expectation of SMEs declined somewhat.

In October, the expansion index of SMEs stood at 46.0, down 0.1 point from the previous month. That of SMEs in the manufacturing industry reported 45.7, down 0.5 point, accompanied with the decrease of 0.6 point and 0.4 point in new investment demand and labor demand, respectively. That of SMEs in the construction industry registered 43.2, down 0.7 point, evidenced by the decrease of 1.4 points and 0.6 point in new investment demand for fixed assets and labor demand, respectively. That of SMEs in the transportation industry posted 45.5, down 0.2 point, with the investment demand in fixed assets lowering by 0.9 point. That of SMEs in the service industry stood at 46.4, down 0.1 point, as seen in the decrease of 1.1 points in labor demand.

In October, the confidence index of SMEs was recorded at 48.1, down 0.2 point. The industries other than the manufacturing industry and the service industry saw their confidence index falling between 0.1-0.6 point.

 

Notes:

All the indictors are positive ones with the value ranging between 0 and 100; the critical point is 50, representing the general state. An index higher than 50 means an improving business situation, otherwise, the business situation gets worse.

The original data of both the risk index and the cost index have been processed and adjusted to positive indicators. The higher the indicator is, the better the situation is.