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China’s Economy Shows Signs of Bottoming out, Micro and Small-Enterprises May Be Well off Soon

Date: 2016-04-26

GUO Tianyong, Professor of Central University of Finance and Economics

Affected by complicated domestic and overseas economic conditions, China’s economy continues facing big downward pressure in the near future. However, with the progress of interest rate liberalization, the deepening of supply-side reform and the continual development of macro-prudential management system, among other policy measures, China’s economy are ameliorating in the long term. Generally speaking, China's economy is correcting at the bottom, and signs of bottoming out are emerging.

In March 2016, the “Economic Daily- PSBC Small and Micro Enterprise Operating Index” was 46.3, up 0.2 points month on month, which indicated the improvement of small and micro enterprise operation in this month. But the index was still lower than the expansion/contraction line.

The index reflecting financing demands of small and micro enterprises was 49.3 in March, nudging up 0.1 points. Specifically, manufacturing and construction showed a sound growth, transportation and wholesale maintained the level of last month, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, accommodation and catering, and service sectors edged down. It is noteworthy that the index reflecting financing demands of small and micro enterprises in manufacturing industry was 50.4 in March, up 0.4 points. If the trend remains, it will greatly spur financing demands of other industries. Risk index of small and micro enterprises was 52.3 in March, up 0.1 points. Risk indexes of small and micro enterprises in all industries all edged up. Survey results showed that working capital in all industries got better, except wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, and the payback cycle in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, and wholesale and retail shortened.

Generally speaking, China's economy shows more and more clear signs of bottoming. Some indexes have already presented signs of rebounding. The market of small and micro enterprises slightly gets better and the effect of polices gradually emerges. However, industrial production continues to slow, and whether the index can last long still remains to be confirmed. The environment of small and micro enterprises is still not optimistic and needs continual support of policies. Therefore, with the deepening of supply-side reform, it is necessary to step up demands restructuring, make small and micro enterprises recognized by the market, and boost the sustainable and long-term development of small and micro enterprises. It is also imperative to timely follow up investments in emerging industries during the process of deleveraging, provide technology and funds for small and micro enterprises to rebound, and propel the development and expansion of small and micro enterprises in emerging industries.