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March 2016 SMEOI Report by Economic Daily and PSBC

Date: 2016-04-26

 

The Economic Daily – PSBC Small and Micro Enterprise Operating Index Research Team

In March 2016, the “Economic Daily-PSBC Small and Micro Enterprise Operating Index” (please see Fig. 1) went up 0.2 points from February 2016 to hit 46.3, suggesting slight improvement in the operation of small and micro enterprises during the past month.

Fig. 1: Economic Daily-PSBC Small and Micro Enterprise Operating Index

 

Among the sub-indices (please see Fig. 2), “six went up, one pulled back, and one stood flat”. To be specific, the market index rose 0.3 points from February to 43.5; the procurement index rose 0.2 points to 45.5; the performance index rose 0.3 points to 45.7; the expansion index stood flat at 45.5; the confidence index rose 0.4 points to 47.8; the financing index rose 0.1 points to 49.7; the risk index rose 0.1 points to 52.3; and the cost index fell 0.3 points to 62.7.

Fig. 2: SMEOI Sub-indices

 

Among the six regional indices (please see Fig. 3), five regional indices jumped and one declined. To be specific, SMEOI for North China rose 0.2 points to 44.8; index for Northeast China rose 0.4 points to 44.3; index for East China rose 0.3 points to 47.0; index for Central South China rose 0.1 points to 49.3; index for Southwest China fell 0.5 points to 46.3; and index for Northwest China rose 0.3 points to 43.5.

Fig. 3: Regional Development Indices

 

I. SMEOI by Industry

Six industry indices rose and one declined in March 2016, suggesting slight turnaround in operation of the small and micro enterprises.

Among the industry indices (please see Fig. 4), all of the industry indices went up during the month except that for accommodation and catering.

Fig. 4: Industry Indices

 

In March, SMEOI for the agriculture, forestry, husbandry & fishery industry ticked up 0.1 points to 45.1, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.2 points, 0.2 points and 0.2 points to 42.3, 45.1 and 43.1, respectively. According to our survey, indices measuring output, orders, principal business income, product inventories, raw material procurement and profit of the small and micro enterprises in the agriculture, forestry, husbandry & fishery industry rose 0.3 points, 0.3 points, 0.2 points, 0.2 points, 0.3 points and 0.2 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the manufacturing industry ended five successive months of decline and rose 0.3 points from February to 44.4, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.4 points, 0.3 points and 0.3 points to 39.6, 40.1 and 44.5, respectively. According to our survey, indices measuring output, backlog orders, finished product inventories, raw material procurement, profit and gross margin of the small and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry rose 0.5 points, 0.7 points, 0.6 points, 0.4 points, 0.3 points and 0.5 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the construction industry rose 0.3 points from February to 45.5, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.4 points, 0.2 points and 0.3 points to 43.6, 40.9 and 47.9, respectively. According to our survey, indices measuring construction volume, value of new construction contracts, construction settlement income, raw material procurement, raw materials inventory, profit and gross margin of the small and micro enterprises in the construction industry rose 0.7 points, 0.6 points, 0.4 points, 0.3 points, 0.3 points, 0.4 points and 0.5 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the transportation industry rose 0.2 points from February to 47.0, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.2 points, 0.2 points and 0 point to 45.7, 45.1 and 45.2, respectively. According to our survey, indices measuring transportation volume, business pre-orders, principal business income, raw material procurement and profit of the small and micro enterprises in the transportation industry rose 0.3 points, 0.2 points, 0.3 points, 0.3 points and 0.1 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the wholesale & retail industry rose 0.2 points from February to 48.7, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.3 points, 0.5 points and 0.2 points to 47.6, 54.3 and 46.5, respectively. To be specific, indices measuring sales order, sales revenue, goods purchase, profit and gross margin of the small and micro enterprises in the wholesale & retail industry rose 0.5 points, 0.5 points, 0.6 points, 0.3 points and 0.2 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the accommodation & catering industry fell 0.2 points from February to 48.5, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry falling 0.3 points, 0.4 points and 0.2 points to 49.3, 47.5 and 48.1, respectively. To be specific, indices measuring business volume, orders, service price, raw materials procurement, raw materials inventory and gross margin of the small and micro enterprises in the accommodation & catering industry pulled back by 0.4 points, 0.3 points, 0.6 points, 0.6 points, 0.4 points and 0.3 points, respectively, in March 2016.

SMEOI for the services industry edged up 0.1 points from February to 46.6, with the market, procurement and performance indices for the industry rising 0.2 points, 0.2 points and 0.1 points to 44.3, 45.3 and 45.4, respectively. To be specific, indices measuring business orders, raw materials procurement, profit and gross margin of the small and micro enterprises in the service industry rose 0.3 points, 0.5 points, 0.2 points and 0.2 points, respectively, in March 2016.

II. SMEOI by Region

Five of the six regional indices rose, and one declined in March 2016.

SMEOI for North China rose 0.2 points from February 2016 to 44.8, with the procurement, performance and confidence indices for the region rising 0.2 points, 0.3 points and 0.5 points to 42.1, 43.9 and 45.2 in March 2016.

SMEOI for Northeast China rose 0.4 points from February 2016 to 44.3, with the market, procurement, expansion and confidence indices for the region rising 0.3 points, 0.3 points, 0.5 points and 0.6 points to 40.6, 42.1, 43.6 and 48.9 in March 2016.

SMEOI for East China rose 0.3 points from February 2016 to 47.0, with the market, expansion and financing indices for the region rising 0.9 points, 0.5 points and 0.7 points to 46.1, 47.3 and 49.3 in March 2016.

SMEOI for Central South China nudged up 0.1 points from February 2016 to 49.3, with the performance, expansion and confidence indices for the region rising 0.3 points, 0.3 points and 0.5 points to 48.3, 48.4 and 49.9 in March 2016.

SMEOI for Northwest China rose 0.3 points from February 2016 to 43.5, with the procurement, financing and risk indices for the region rising 0.2 points, 0.5 points and 0.5 points to 42.9, 49.1 and 50.2 in March 2016.

SMEOI for Southwest China fell 0.5 points from February 2016 to 46.3, with the procurement, expansion and financing indices for the region falling 0.8 points, 0.5 points and 0.9 points to 46.5, 46.0 and 47.7 in March 2016.

III. Financing Activates and Risk Profile of Micro and Small Enterprises

The financing index reflecting financing demands of small and micro enterprises (please see Fig. 5) ticked up 0.1 points to 49.7 in March 2016.

In March, the financing index for small and micro enterprises in the manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale & retail, agriculture, accommodation & catering, and services industries went up 0.4 points, 0.2 points, 0 point, 0 point, -0.1 points, -0.2 points and -0.1 points to 50.4, 48.2, 50.8, 49.2, 48.4, 46.1 and 51.8, respectively.

The risk index for small and micro enterprises (please see Fig. 5) rose 0.1 points to 52.3. To be specific, the risk indices for the agriculture, manufacturing, construction, transportation and services industries went up 0.4 points, 0.2 points, 0.2 points, 0.3 points and 0.3 points to 49.7, 52.0, 52.8, 49.6 and 51.5, respectively. Our survey shows, except the wholesale & retail and accommodation & catering industries, working capital turnover of all other industries speeded up, with payback cycle of the agriculture, transportation and wholesale & retail industries being further shortened.

Fig. 5: Financing and Risk Indices for Industries

 

IV. Expectation on the Operation of Micro and Small Enterprises

In March 2016, the expansion index reflecting operating expectation of small and micro enterprises stood flat compared to February 2016, and the confidence index rose.

In March 2016, the expansion index for small and micro enterprises stood flat versus February at 45.5. By industries, expansion index for the agriculture industry edged up 0.1 points to 45.1, with new investment demand ticking up 0.3 points; expansion index for the manufacturing industry rose 0.2 points to 45.0, with new investment demand and labor demand growing 0.3 and 0.2 points, respectively; expansion index for the construction industry rose 0.1 points to 42.3, with labor demand growing 0.2 points; expansion index for the transportation industry rose 0.1 points to 45.6, with new investment demand and labor demand growing 0.2 points and 0.2 points, respectively; and expansion index for the services industry rose 0.1 points to 46.5, with new investment demand and labor demand growing 0.2 points and 0.3 points, respectively.

In March 2016, the confidence index for small and micro enterprises rose 0.4 points from February to 47.8. Confidence index of all industries picked up, with that for the agriculture, accommodation & catering, manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale & retail and service industries growing 0.2 points, 0.2 points, 0.3 points, 0.3 points, 0.3 points, 0.4 points and 0.1 points, respectively.

Note:

All indices are positive indicators with a value range between 0 and 100. 50 marks a threshold. An index above 50 reflects operation of enterprises is improving; and an index below 50 means operation of enterprises is deteriorating.

The risk index and cost index are adjusted to positive indicators through processing of original data. The greater an index is, the better operation of small and micro enterprises is.